Anthropic's Amodei suggests universal basic income could offset 'intrinsic' AI-related job losses - Business Insider

Dario Amodei says he's not trying to be a "prophet of doom" about AI and jobs, but the Anthropic CEO is warning that mass displacement may not be a temporary growing pain of the technology — it may be part of what makes AI work. In a new policy essay, Amodei wrote that there is a "decent possibility" that, despite efforts to soften the blow, AI could cause "significant enduring job loss" — and that this "may be an intrinsic property of the technology and the way it broadly replicates human cognition." The argument reframes one of the AI industry's most uncomfortable questions. If AI systems are designed to perform more of the cognitive work humans do, then job losses may not simply be the result of bad corporate behavior or short-term adjustment, as some executives argue. Amodei suggests they could be a structural consequence of successful AI development.In other words, a feature, not a bug. Amodei has sounded alarms on this before. He previously warned that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years and push unemployment to 10% to 20%, urging companies and policymakers to stop "sugarcoating" the risk. His latest essay is less about predicting a specific jobs apocalypse than spelling out what governments should do if enduring displacement arrives. His answer is twofold: slow the damage and share the gains. Amodei called for better "measurement and tracking" of AI's labor-market effects, including expanded government statistics. He also endorsed "pro-employment incentives" such as wage insurance for workers who have to take lower-paying jobs due to the technology, retention tax incentives, workforce training grants, and better job-matching infrastructure. If AI permanently reduces demand for human labor, he wrote, governments may need to go further, including "long-term income support" such as universal basic income, financed by taxes on relevant companies or higher capital gains taxes. He also floated universal capital accounts as another way to spread AI-created wealth. The essay lands amid a broader shift in tone, as some of the industry's most prominent AI leaders, including Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, have recently stressed productivity gains and new economic opportunities rather than warnings of job losses. Business Insider recently reported that the executives — who once highlighted AI's disruptive effects — are now spending more time discussing how workers and society can benefit from the technology's gains as they gear up for hotly anticipated IPOs. Amodei's latest policy memo said Anthropic aims to help corporate customers find new revenue and "do more with their existing workforce," rather than focusing solely on cost savings. However, he said, if AI's upside is truly as enormous as he argues, society needs a plan for workers who may not automatically share in its gains.